This Is The Only Way The Democrats Can Win Tuesday in Mississippi

"There is only ONE way Democrats can win in Mississippi on election night. Follow our team of experts as they explain Dems only path to victory." - Hattiesburg News

HATTIESBURG, Miss (THN News) - This is the only way Democrats can win Mississippi. Hattiesburg News breaks down what Scott Colom needs to do to defeat Cindy Hyde Smith. Here is the only pathway to victory for Colom to be declared the winner on Tuesday Night.

Our election experts have studied the data and composed the only logical path to victory in order for Democrats to win Mississippi during Tuesday's midterm elections. Let's take a look at what our map shows.

Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith won the same 51 Mississippi counties in her 2018 runoff and 2020 reelection. Democrat Mike Espy carried the remaining 31 both times.

Hattiesburg News’ color-coded map shows where Democrats would need to improve to overcome that advantage.

Everything starts with the Big Blue Wall

Colom must hold Mississippi's blue wall. If the blue wall falls, the chances of Colom winning become slim to none.

Blue counties represent the Democratic foundation. They include Hinds and numerous Delta counties, along with Lowndes, Chickasaw, Panola and Oktibbeha. A winning Democratic result would likely require holding this foundation while producing larger vote margins.

Secondly, Scott Colom must FLIP the Gang of 8 In order for Colom to win, he must flip these 8 counties highlighted in purple on the map. Yes, that includes flipping Hattiesburg.

Purple counties represent Hyde-Smith’s eight narrowest county victories in 2020: Forrest, Grenada, Lafayette, Winston, Yalobusha, Madison, Montgomery and Leake. Forrest County, home to Hattiesburg and Petal, supported Hyde-Smith by just 1,208 votes. Her margin in Lafayette County was 1,321 votes.

Thirdly, Democrats must SHOWOUT in these cities

Democrats must show up strong up by the thousands in these cities in order for Colom to defeat Cindy Hyde Smith: Southaven, Olive Branch, Horn Lake, Hernando, Gulfport, Biloxi, Long Beach, Pascagoula, Ocean Springs, Moss Point, Brandon, Pearl, and Flowood.

These areas are highlighted in orange on the map. Colom don't have to win the entire county but strong democratic turnout all but guarantees a strong possibility Colom wins.

Orange counties—DeSoto, Harrison, Jackson and Rankin—illustrate another opportunity: reducing Republican winning margins in populous counties. Democrats could improve their statewide standing without winning all four.

Finally, Flip A Few Republicans Bring Out A Few Dems

Green counties represent Hyde-Smith’s other 39 county victories. Smaller Democratic losses across these areas could also contribute to closing the statewide gap.

The challenge remains substantial. Hyde-Smith defeated Espy by 65,950 votes in the 2018 runoff and 130,820 votes in 2020. Flipping a handful of close counties alone would not necessarily overcome those margins.

The map is historical analysis, not a forecast. Mississippi’s statewide vote total determines the winner, meaning turnout and winning margins matter more than the number of counties a candidate carries.

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This news story was covered by Hattiesburg News Staff. Thank you for visiting the Award Winning Hattiesburg News.